Legislature(1997 - 1998)

01/16/1997 09:05 AM Senate FIN

Audio Topic
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
txt
                                                                               
                                                                               
                             MINUTES                                           
                    SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                   
                         16 January 1997                                       
                            9:05 a.m.                                          
                                                                               
  TAPES                                                                        
                                                                               
  SFC-97, #1, Side 1 (000 - 588)                                               
              Side 1 (588 - 323)                                               
                                                                               
  CALL TO ORDER                                                                
                                                                               
  Senator  Drue  Pearce,  Co-chair,  convened the  meeting  at                 
  approximately 9:05 a.m.                                                      
                                                                               
  PRESENT                                                                      
                                                                               
  In addition to Co-chair  Pearce, Senators Donley, Torgerson,                 
  Parnell  and  Adams  were present.    Co-chairman  Sharp was                 
  excused  from  the  meeting  and  Senator  Phillips  arrived                 
  shortly thereafter.                                                          
                                                                               
  ALSO  ATTENDING:    Senator   Gary  Wilken;  Wilson  Condon,                 
  Commissioner, Department  of Revenue;  Dr. Charles  Logsdon,                 
  Chief Petroleum Economist,  Division of  Oil and Gas  Audit,                 
  Department of Revenue;                                                       
  Deborah Vogt,  Deputy Commissioner,  Department of  Revenue;                 
  Chris Miller,  Chief, Research  and Analysis, Department  of                 
  Labor;  John Boucher, Labor  Economist, Department of Labor;                 
  Jeff  Hadland,  Economist,   Department  of  Labor;   Dwight                 
  Perkins, Special  Assistant to the  Commissioner, Department                 
  of  Labor;   Mike  Greany,  Director,   Legislative  Finance                 
  Division; and aides  to committee members and  other members                 
  of the legislature.                                                          
                                                                               
                                                                               
  SUMMARY INFORMATION                                                          
                                                                               
                           STATE REVENUE UPDATE                                
                                  by the                                       
                           DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE                               
                                                                               
  Upon   convening  the   meeting   Co-chair  Pearce   invited                 
  representatives of the  Departments of Labor and  Revenue to                 
  join   members  at   the   committee  table   and   commence                 
  presentation  of updated  revenue  projections.   Presenting                 
  testimony for  the Department  of Labor  were Chris  Miller,                 
  John Boucher and Jeff Hadland.  Presenting testimony for the                 
  Department of Revenue were Commissioner  Wilson Condon;  Dr.                 
  Charles Logsdon;  and Deborah Vogt, Deputy Commissioner.                     
                                                                               
  Co-chair Pearce  welcomed the committee  members and advised                 
  that  the  purpose of  this meeting  was  to have  a revenue                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  forecast  presentation by  both  Departments  of  Labor  and                 
  Revenue.  The  Department of Labor presented  an overview of                 
  the Alaskan economy and the  Department of Revenue presented                 
  the current year projections along with highlights that were                 
  non-oil and gas revenue related.                                             
                                                                               
  Mr. John Boucher gave  a brief sketch of the  current status                 
  of  the  State of  Alaska's  economy.   He  referred  to the                 
  department's handout (see attached).                                         
                                                                               
  He said recent  trends seen  in Alaska wage  and salary  job                 
  growth were a leading economic indicator.  Currently the job                 
  count showed  the economy  was continuing  to move  forward;                 
  although the state was  currently in a period of  slower job                 
  growth than traditionally seen.  The size of the economy was                 
  about  264,000  wage and  salary jobs.   That  excluded some                 
  sectors of the economy and that number had continued to grow                 
  since 1995.  Even though relatively slow job growth has been                 
  seen as  compared to  historic levels  that understates  the                 
  constant churning  going on in  Alaska's economy.   The past                 
  year the department had tracked statistically new  hires.  A                 
  new hire was an individual who,  in their most recent period                 
  of employment, had  a job  with a  new employer.   They  are                 
  tracked back four quarters and a  new hire was an individual                 
  that had a  new job to them.   Each new hire  represented an                 
  opportunity  for  an  unemployed Alaskan  to  join  the work                 
  force.  It  showed that  seasonality has and  will remain  a                 
  major factor in the  ability for Alaskans to join  the labor                 
  force.                                                                       
                                                                               
  The role  of non-residents  in the  economy remained  fairly                 
  significant.  In  1995 there were nearly  80,000 individuals                 
  out of  350,000 that worked  in Alaska that  were considered                 
  non-residents,  using  the permanent  fund  dividend (either                 
  application filed or  the previous years dividend  check) as                 
  an indicator of  residency.   Those individuals earned  $923                 
  million  in  Alaska  and  that  represented   a  significant                 
  potential  leakage  from  the  State's  economy  that  could                 
  potentially be captured  either through wages that  would be                 
  spent in Alaska or Alaskans joining the labor force in place                 
  of those non-residents.                                                      
                                                                               
  He referred to where Alaskans worked in 1990 and 1996.  This                 
  helped  illustrate  where  Alaska's  economy  ass  currently                 
  headed.  He explained that oil and gas industry was included                 
  in  the  mining section.   He  said  that the  Department of                 
  Labor's current classification did not allow tourism jobs to                 
  be identified separately from other industry jobs.  They are                 
  known as an  important factor in the  transportation sector,                 
  under entrepreneurs and under services  and trade sectors of                 
  our economy.  Aleyeska Pipeline was currently counted in the                 
  transportation industries as a support for the oil sector.                   
                                                                               
  In the last  six years certain  sectors of the economy  have                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  grown  in  terms  of  employment  opportunities  and  others                 
  shrunk.   Seafood and  timber manufacturing  industries have                 
  grown smaller when it comes to their share of the pie.   The                 
  military, federal  government, government of  all types  and                 
  the oil and gas  industry have also become smaller  parts of                 
  the pie.   The industries that  have more or less  displaced                 
  those have been the services sector, construction sector and                 
  retail trade.  An individual may work for a company and then                 
  contract  out,  essentially moving  to  a different  type of                 
  company performing the same job.  These were the trends seen                 
  during the 1990's with the rise of the trade sector.                         
                                                                               
  He referred to the unemployment rate and said that there had                 
  been  relatively  slow job  growth  during the  last several                 
  years.    The  unusual   thing,  looking  historically,   is                 
  relatively low unemployment rates.  This  year is the fourth                 
  year in a row that Alaska's  unemployment rate was under 8%.                 
  It   is  not  unusual  in  previous  years  for  the  annual                 
  unemployment rate to have been from  9-1/2% to 10-1/2%.  Low                 
  unemployment was an  unusual situation and at  the same time                 
  basic industries were  shrinking.  The national  economy was                 
  much healthier now and individuals  that would normally have                 
  moved to Alaska for job opportunities were staying closer to                 
  home.   Also, there had been some outmigration  in the State                 
  due to military base closures and larger layoffs.  There was                 
  a smaller  pool  of  workers  out there  competing  for  the                 
  available  job opportunities and one of the results had been                 
  a lower unemployment rate.                                                   
                                                                               
  He  then  moved on  to looking  at  Alaska in  an historical                 
  perspective.  There  had been  pretty much sustained  growth                 
  since  statehood.   There  were many  reasons  for this  but                 
  generally there had been  a slow-down in the rate  of growth                 
  over time.   He then referred  to what the expectations  for                 
  the future were.  As the economy has grown  the growth rates                 
  seen in the '60's,  '70's and early '80's were  getting much                 
  more  difficult to duplicate.   The economy was beginning to                 
  look  more  like the  national economy.    With that  came a                 
  different set of expectations.   It was expected within  the                 
  next five to ten  years the growth would converge  more with                 
  national trends that diverge.                                                
                                                                               
  In  talking  about the  last  several years  of  the economy                 
  growth rates for 1995 and 1996  are relatively slow when the                 
  overall period  of  the 1990's  was  looked at.    Presently                 
  growth is  less than one  percent per  year.   There were  a                 
  number of causes for  this, but primarily it was  because of                 
  significant economic setbacks such as oil industry cutbacks.                 
   The timber industry and seafood processing sector have been                 
  continuing to  struggle and  they have  been accompanied  by                 
  downsizing on the  federal government side and  the military                 
  side.  There have been significant  dampers on potential job                 
  growth.  The economy  still managed to show some  job growth                 
  despite these  factors.   Slower growth  was going  to be  a                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  factor in the  future.  Some  trends were probably going  to                 
  continue.    It was  not  expected  the services  and  trade                 
  sectors to continue carrying Alaska's economy.                               
                                                                               
  Referring to the last  page of the handout  from one day  to                 
  the next one could probably move  some of the items from the                 
  bear to  the  bull column  and  from the  bull to  the  bear                 
  column.    However, things  were  dynamic and  could change.                 
  Some positives now  were new  oil investments and  potential                 
  new oil finds  coming on line  which should be positive  for                 
  employment,   additional   hardrock   mining  activity   and                 
  anticipated  visitor  industry.    Anchorage  and  Fairbanks                 
  looked  to  continue to  benefit  in growth  in  Pacific Rim                 
  trade.  There was continued growth in the permanent fund and                 
  also  the  cost  of  doing  business  had  continued  to  be                 
  favourable in comparison to other  locations in the country.                 
  There had been no tremendous wage pressures and there was no                 
  difference between Alaska wages and the rest of the country.                 
  In  employing residents  the more  income   captured  in the                 
  local  economy  the more  vital  those local  economies were                 
  going to be.                                                                 
                                                                               
  On  the  downside, it  was  anticipated that  the government                 
  sector in Alaska was going to continue shrinking both on the                 
  military, federal and the state side.   There did not appear                 
  to be  any reversal in the timber industry right now.  There                 
  was the closure of  the Ketchikan Pulp Mill on  the horizon,                 
  salmon markets continuing  to struggle and all were aware of                 
  what the long term outlook of Prudhoe Bay was.                               
                                                                               
  Senator Pearce  asked about British Petroleum  announcing at                 
  the end of the year they  would be making fairly significant                 
  investments in exploration  but at the same  time announcing                 
  their plans to downsize their present work force both in the                 
  actual Prudhoe Bay field and  the Anchorage headquarters and                 
  if there  had been  enough information to  codify what  that                 
  really meant in terms of jobs for Alaskans.                                  
                                                                               
  Mr. Boucher indicated  that he did  not think that had  gone                 
  into effect yet, however, new  technologies always seemed to                 
  be a duel-edged sword.  Production may be increased but that                 
  may  mean less  jobs.   That is a  trend occurring  in every                 
  industry.                                                                    
                                                                               
  Senator Pearce asked if  there was a feel for  the Anchorage                 
  support jobs that  would be more administrative and if these                 
  were affected by the downsizing.  She wanted to be sure they                 
  were not  moving the  accounting section  to Cleveland,  for                 
  instance.                                                                    
                                                                               
  Mr.  Boucher  said he  had not  made  an assessment  on this                 
  matter.                                                                      
                                                                               
  Senator Adams referred to  the chart reflecting unemployment                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  below  8%  and asked  that  he explain  how  that particular                 
  average  had been arrived at.   Were people who had to apply                 
  for jobs placed in there?  Mr. Boucher explained that it was                 
  the result of a regression equation which took into  account                 
  the trend and unemployment claims and the result of a survey                 
  that was  conducted house-to-house.   It  was not  a perfect                 
  method in terms  of measuring unemployment, particularly  in                 
  rural  Alaska.  Senator Adams said  the chart was inaccurate                 
  because it was not calculated right.   Welfare roles need to                 
  be looked at.  It was wonderful  to tell the people, even in                 
  the Governor's speech, Alaskans were below for unemployment,                 
  which is not  true.  It is  much higher because an  accurate                 
  count in rural Alaska was not being done.   Mr. Boucher said                 
  he was aware  of the situation and they  were trying to make                 
  strides  in   the  shortcomings   of  the  measurements   of                 
  unemployment  in  Alaska.   It must  be considered  that the                 
  definition  of  unemployment is  someone  looking for  a job                 
  during the past four weeks  and that is where most of  rural                 
  Alaskans  fall out of the  picture.  Senator Adams indicated                 
  that  in most parts of  rural Alaska there  were not jobs to                 
  look for.  That is why the chart was inaccurate.                             
                                                                               
  Wilson  Condon, Commissioner of  Revenue and  Chuck Logsdon,                 
  Chief  Petroleum   Economist  were   invited  to   join  the                 
  committee.                                                                   
                                                                               
  Mr. Condon referred to summary tables from their autumn 1996                 
  revenue  forecast.     This  summarized  revenues   actually                 
  received in FY 1996  and their projections as of  1 November                 
  for FY '97,  '98 and '99.   Mr. Chuck Logsdon  continued the                 
  presentation referring to oil prices and where they were and                 
  where  they  were  going.   He  referred  specifically  to a                 
  monthly  publication  that they  did  because the  oil price                 
  situation was fairly dynamic and they liked to keep everyone                 
  updated  as to  the  effective movements  of oil  prices and                 
  current year estimates.  The main point of interest was with                 
  prices  as they  were presently  they were  running  at $100                 
  million above the  November 1 projection.   He addressed the                 
  chart indicating "ANS oil prices", 1985 to 2010.   The first                 
  thing noted  was the  1985 -  1987 period  being a  downward                 
  trend in oil  prices.  It  should be noted  in the  forecast                 
  that  in  the   middle  was  the  price   bubble  was  being                 
  experienced now.   Looking further the nominal  dollar price                 
  drifted up towards $25 while the  real dollar price fell and                 
  stayed level at  about $16/barrel.   They felt  this was  no                 
  different  from the long term  forecasts that have been made                 
  in the last  few years and not all  that different from what                 
  others who  engage  in this  type  of speculation  felt  was                 
  likely to occur.  It is further thought that this trend will                 
  stabilize  at around  the $16/barrel.   On the  supply side,                 
  technology  has  proven   over  the  years  to   be  a  very                 
  significant  impactor  on  the  supply  side  of  any,  even                 
  depletable,  resource.  In the case  of petroleum that meant                 
  liquid fossil fuels.    As technology advanced not  only are                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  more liquid hydrocarbons being discovered in the ground more                 
  of the liquid hydrocarbons that are  in the ground are being                 
  produced such as the North Slope.                                            
                                                                               
  Over time,  technology allowed  one to  produce things  that                 
  were not quite  as liquid as others  and there was a  lot of                 
  fossil  fuel  in   the  ground,  whether  low   cost  liquid                 
  hydrocarbons  like the oil in Saudia  Arabia or the somewhat                 
  more  difficult to produce  stuff in abundance  on the North                 
  Slope.    There  are literally  trillions  and  trillions of                 
  barrels.    Technology advances  will  continue to  make the                 
  supply more available.  At the same time on the demand side,                 
  there  were a  number of factors  that suggested  oil prices                 
  would tend to  trend around  the $16/barrel level.   It  was                 
  known that technology  also improved  the efficiency of  the                 
  energy  consuming  capitals    stock.   The  economic trends                 
  right  now would  suggest  that the  West would  probably be                 
  using  at a much  lower rate than  those who  do things like                 
  telecommunicate and  spend more  time on  the Internet  than                 
  they do on the road.  The developing countries would also be                 
  growing fairly  rapidly and  their increased  use of  fossil                 
  fuels would also begin  to grow.  One of the  big drivers on                 
  the  demand side  was  population growth  and  as the  world                 
  economies mature the  population growth rates begin  to come                 
  down.    That  would also  put  a lid  on  the  demand side.                 
  Finally the greening of the global economy.  If it became an                 
  overriding policy goal  to impose  taxes or regulate  fossil                 
  fuel consumption for  reasons such as global  warming, those                 
  are  also factors  which would  limit demand  over the  long                 
  haul.   These were  not necessarily original  thoughts but a                 
  compilation of what many people who are engaged in this sort                 
  of speculation  about long term oil prices generally feel is                 
  going to be the case.                                                        
                                                                               
  Looking  at the  price  bubble, there  was  a very  positive                 
  influence  on  the  oil  revenues  and  revenue  picture  in                 
  general.  He referred to early  1996 when it became apparent                 
  demand  was  outrunning  supply.     Crude  inventories  and                 
  petroleum product  inventories began to  fall quite rapidly.                 
  As a result price moved  up fairly rapidly; by March it  was                 
  over  $20/barrel.   During  that period  of  time there  was                 
  concern by the refineries  and the purchases of oil  that it                 
  was a temporary phenomena because Iraq  was close to getting                 
  the embargo lifted totally and there  would be the export of                 
  humanitarian oil.  Also the oil fields in the North Sea were                 
  coming on at a fairly rapid pace.   It was generally felt in                 
  the  industry that oil  prices would be  coming down.   As a                 
  result inventories were kept quite  lean, while at the  same                 
  time demand  continued to be quite strong,  resulting in oil                 
  prices staying relatively high.   What happened in the  fall                 
  was that Iraq was going to export and then they never showed                 
  up on the market.  The North Sea additions to production did                 
  not occur  quite as  robustly as  was expected  and yet  the                 
  global  economy, which was called the core driver of demand,                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  remained  very strong.  Therefore  the winter period came in                 
  with a lean inventory.   With lean inventories and  a series                 
  of winter  storms and  extraordinary cold  in January  North                 
  Slope  crude  was  $24/barrel.    The  weather  bureau  just                 
  announced  that this  winter  has been  the  coldest in  the                 
  midwest.  However, it  is believed that the bubble  is going                 
  to burst.  The graph  showed the price coming down in  about                 
  April.  First, seasonal demand will go away;  second, higher                 
  energy costs would  show up as  a damper on global  economic                 
  growth; and third,  there would be a fairly significant non-                 
  OPEC production response  to the  higher oil prices.   As  a                 
  case study,  Alaska's North Slope  technological innovations                 
  that were being pioneered would inevitably spread world wide                 
  and with higher prices there would be more wells drilled and                 
  more production showing up.   Seasonal demand would go away,                 
  core  demand would weaken and there would  be a big surge on                 
  the supply side with the price coming back down.                             
                                                                               
  He referred to the outlook for fiscal year '96, '97, and '98                 
  as the oil price went up.  For '97 the estimates are over 2-                 
  1/2 billion barrels and well over  2 billion in '98 compared                 
  to the spring forecast.  The  '96 level due to last spring's                 
  higher oil prices was booked in at  50 million over what had                 
  been  predicted.   That  was the  value of  the bubble.   He                 
  concluded by referring to the futures market and implied ANS                 
  prices.   He cautioned those  looking at  the futures  price                 
  saying it was probably a pretty good measure of value in the                 
  next few months because there was a great deal of buying and                 
  selling and  futures contracts  for delivery several  months                 
  out.  The futures market was a measure of market expectation                 
  or downside risk because the futures price was lower farther                 
  out into the  future.  He  compared the February 1997  price                 
  for ANS at  $23.51 with  the futures price  for implied  ANS                 
  price in February 1998  of $18.50.  Essentially  the futures                 
  market is  down about $5.   The  fall forecast  for '98  was                 
  $17.71/barrel.   The  current spot  price  is $24.35/barrel.                 
  The bottom line was to enjoy a nice little revenue injection                 
  due to the  price bubble but as it stands most of the things                 
  looked at today suggest the bubble will burst and would fall                 
  under the forecast of $16/barrel.                                            
                                                                               
  Senator Pearce asked what the current projections for fiscal                 
  year  '97  revenues were  and  Mr. Logsdon  said  $21.63 was                 
  expected out to  the penny.   That is  essentially based  on                 
  using futures prices for  the next four months.   That would                 
  be a surplus  just over  $100 million or  $2-1/2 billion  of                 
  general fund  unrestricted revenue.   In  terms of  the fall                 
  forecast we are  about $100  million ahead or  over the  '97                 
  budget.    Senator  Pearce  referred  to the  revenue  chart                 
  showing the  January 1997  forecast for  revenues in  fiscal                 
  year  '98  has increased  over '97  and  asked what  the new                 
  number would be.  Mr. Logsdon said this was based on a price                 
  that would be  about $1.50/barrel   above so  that would  be                 
  roughly  $19.00/barrel.    That would  be  a  futures market                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  assessment.                                                                  
                                                                               
  Senator Adams asked  about contracts  prices with the  state                 
  and how  did they lag behind the actual prices.  Mr. Logsdon                 
  said a major  attempt had been made  to get the prices  on a                 
  contemporary basis.   The prices  were fairly close  because                 
  the state required the companies to pay their production tax                 
  using  spot price.   The tax  return was  going to be  due a                 
  month after  the  month of  production  so there  were  some                 
  timing effects on when  the check would be received.   There                 
  were also some timing effects to the extent that they may be                 
  delivering  the oil in  a different  month than  produced so                 
  there could be some minor timing differences.  Basically  on                 
  the royalty and severance  tax side the state was  currently                 
  being paid spot prices.  Commissioner Condon added that when                 
  spot price quotes  are seen for  West Texas Intermediate  or                 
  ANS in  the daily  paper, for  the most  part those  are for                 
  deliveries  that  are to  occur next  month.   A  spot price                 
  quoted  today, mid-January, would be  a quote for a delivery                 
  to occur in February.                                                        
                                                                               
  Senator Adams referred  to revenue forecasts  for FY '97  at                 
  $21.63. Some rely on Cambridge Energy  at $22.00 and that is                 
  a  $0.37  difference.    The  FY  '98  estimate  is  $17.71.                 
  Cambridge is $19.50  and that is  $1.79 difference.   Should                 
  the committee be looking at the Cambridge estimate or taking                 
  an average  between  the  two  for  actuality?    Are  there                 
  different philosophies because of an act of God such as cold                 
  weather or perhaps the mind game that is going on with Iraq?                 
  Which estimate  should  the committee  be looking  at?   Mr.                 
  Logsdon  recommended     the   futures  market   projection,                 
  realizing another short run assessment  for fiscal years '98                 
  and '99 would be made probably  for release around the first                 
  of April.                                                                    
                                                                               
  Senator Adams referred  to the $100 million surplus  and Mr.                 
  Logsdon said  for  fiscal  year '97  that  was  the  current                 
  estimate.  Senator Adams  said that with this money  we were                 
  paying back the constitutional budget  reserve money that we                 
  had borrowed.  Mr. Logsdon said that was what he understood.                 
  Senator Adams said that  pot of money in the  constitutional                 
  budget  reserve was  about $3.1  billion.    He asked  how a                 
  dollar  change  was  measured in  the  average  price.   Mr.                 
  Logsdon said  the current rule  of thumb  was $100  million.                 
  That was driven by  the current rate of production  of about                 
  1.4 million/barrel/day.                                                      
                                                                               
  Commissioner Condon  turned to projected  production volumes                 
  which was the other major variable  in terms of oil revenue.                 
  The question that a number of folks have asked was about the                 
  recent announcements  by ARCO  and BP,  their commitment  to                 
  make additional investments in Alaska  and would that change                 
  in  any way the revenue  forecast.  He  referred to the next                 
  graph showing the dotted  line being the fall   '96 forecast                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  and the solid line reflecting what productions volumes would                 
  be if  the additional investments  announced by ARCO  and BP                 
  bore the fruit they hoped it would bear.  In the  short term                 
  that would not make  any difference but beginning in  FY '99                 
  if those investments work the way companies hoped then there                 
  would be an increase in  production over what was previously                 
  forecast of 25,000 barrels/day.   That increases out  to the                 
  year  2005  when  the increase  production  volume  would be                 
  300,000  barrels/day.    That  would  take effect  if  those                 
  investments worked out as well as those companies hoped.  In                 
  terms  of  revenue  that  would  mean  $25,000,000/year   in                 
  additional revenue.  In the year 2005, remembering that much                 
  of the new production is going to  be what is referred to as                 
  marginal fields where the  tax rate as a consequence  of the                 
  way the economic limit factor works, will not be at the same                 
  level  as  the  tax  rate  that applies  to  the  production                 
  currently  coming  from the  Prudhoe  Bay and  Kuparuk River                 
  fields.  That  was believed to  be the effect of  additional                 
  investments that ARCO and BP announced  they are going to be                 
  if the  investments work  as they  have projected.   Another                 
  question  is   the  Cambridge  Energy   Research  associates                 
  projection of production that was put before the Legislature                 
  two  years  ago.   The  next  graphic  was  a reflection  of                 
  additions  to  the annual  general  fund revenue  that would                 
  result from the  production increases  not yet reflected  in                 
  any revenue forecasts.   When looked  at what it would  mean                 
  for overall State revenue with  the current tax arrangements                 
  that are on the books and the other revenues that would come                 
  into the  State given the  revenue raising measures  that it                 
  employs  what would be  seen is nominal  dollars coming into                 
  the  general  fund for  the seven  year  period from  FY '99                 
  through  2005,  right around  $1.9  billion, a  fairly level                 
  annual  revenue  during  that  period of  time.    What  the                 
  additional  investments and  production would mean,  if they                 
  bore fruit, was that for this  seven year period there would                 
  not be a nominal  decline in State  revenue.  It would  hold                 
  pretty steady right around $1.9 billion.                                     
                                                                               
  Senator  Pearce  asked  if  the  gas  pipeline  was  in  the                 
  projections and Commissioner  Condon said it  was not.   The                 
  gas pipeline  would not  come on  stream  and be  productive                 
  revenue before FY 2005.                                                      
                                                                               
  Senator  Adams said in the Budget  and Audit meeting earlier                 
  the Senator from Chugach  brought up the effects of  two new                 
  legislations  that  were  passed  were  incentives  on   oil                 
  companies of the North  Slope and asked what was  the amount                 
  of  tax  breaks  given  to  encourage  the  new  production.                 
  Commissioner Condon said none of the taxes had been  changed                 
  over  the  last  couple of  years.    There  have been  some                 
  modifications made with respect to royalty arrangements with                 
  respect to the North  Star field and arrangements  were made                 
  in the  previous year  providing the  possibility for  other                 
  royalty  changes but none  have occurred.   The basic fiscal                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  arrangements pertinent to all this projected production save                 
  North Star have remained  exactly as they were prior  to two                 
  years  ago.  Obviously  the perception of  the industry, the                 
  investment climate and the desirability of Alaska as a place                 
  to  do business,  members  of the  industry  would say  have                 
  changed in terms of willingness  of the government to search                 
  for ways where it believed the  public and private interests                 
  of the oil companies were common.  The last couple of years,                 
  both from the  legislative branch  and the executive  branch                 
  perspective there  had  been  an effect,  but  we  have  not                 
  sacrificed and actually gained revenue.  Senator Adams asked                 
  if  the  new legislation  and  fiscal arrangement  were good                 
  arrangements.  The State  of Alaska was not giving  too much                 
  of their  resources away and Commissioner Condon said he did                 
  not believe so.                                                              
                                                                               
  Commissioner  Condon  continued  regarding corporate  income                 
  taxes  and what was  seen on the next  page (of the handout)                 
  was a  table  that  reflected the  tax  liabilities  or  the                 
  returns that were  filed in  FY '96.   In looking  carefully                 
  back at the front  page in the handout, there  was reflected                 
  corporate income tax of $227 million, $173 million of  which                 
  is from the corporate  income tax as applied to oil  and gas                 
  companies.  He explained the difference between $170 million                 
  and $96 million.   $96  million reflected  the amounts  that                 
  showed up  on tax returns when they were filed.  Tax returns                 
  filed in FY '96 related to money that was for the  most part                 
  paid to the State in FY '95  because tax payers must file on                 
  a quarterly basis and then for the most part they file their                 
  tax returns on September 15 which comes after the end of the                 
  fiscal year.   That reflected  the difference.   Information                 
  received from  the tax  returns filed  in FY  '96 one  would                 
  observe that  94 taxpayers pay  92% of the  corporate income                 
  tax that was paid to the State  of Alaska.  There were 1,000                 
  corporations that pay $1,000 or more and if the cut-off line                 
  was $100 there are 2,000 corporations.                                       
                                                                               
  Senator  Pearce  asked  how oil  and  gas  corporations were                 
  defined and if  they had to be producers or  would MAPCO who                 
  did not produce oil in Alaska  come under the same category.                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  Deborah Vogt, Deputy Commissioner, Department of Revenue was                 
  invited to join the committee.  She said AS 43.20.072, which                 
  applied  to oil  and gas  corporations  as did  old separate                 
  accountings to  a tax payer  who is either  a producer  or a                 
  pipeline transporter  of oil or  gas.  Senator  Pearce noted                 
  there are 37 companies that are either pipeline transporters                 
  or producers.  Ms. Vogt concurred.  Commissioner Condon said                 
  that if the  numbers were  looked at closely  one would  see                 
  there was rather  a dramatic  increase in projected  revenue                 
  and actual revenue  received during FY  '96 from what  would                 
  have been received in  FY '95.  This $96  million figure for                 
  oil and gas  companies clearly reflected the  fact worldwide                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  oil and gas companies in the last  couple of years have been                 
  considerably more profitable than they were in the preceding                 
  couple  of years.   The  next  chart   for fiscal  years '93                 
  through '96 was  a comparison for  the number of gallons  of                 
  gasoline sold  versus the taxable gallons of gasoline.  What                 
  occurred there was the ever increasing  use of ethanol as an                 
  additive to gasoline  and under  the provisions  of the  tax                 
  applicable to motor fuel  there is a tax exemption  for fuel                 
  that has ethanol added to it.  While motor fuel use has gone                 
  up the number  of gallons that  the gasoline tax applied  to                 
  went  down  and consequently  revenue  on gasoline  has gone                 
  down.  The revenue on other motor fuels has not gone down so                 
  that the overall  motor fuel tax  revenues have not  dropped                 
  steeply in  the same  way they would  have if  one was  just                 
  looking at the gasoline part of motor fuel revenues.                         
                                                                               
  Senator Phillips asked  if the  administration was going  to                 
  introduce a  constitutional amendment for  the dedication of                 
  the  gasoline tax this year  or next and Commissioner Condon                 
  informed the committee that he did not know.  He said it had                 
  been brought up and discussed.   Senator Phillips said  that                 
  his  district  had an  interest  and  would like  to  see it                 
  dedicated.                                                                   
                                                                               
  Commissioner  Condon  said   another  matter  discussed   in                 
  preparation for this hearing  was shared taxes.  He  did not                 
  know   if  the  amount  of  money  seen  being  shared  with                 
  communities  was  going   to  remain   a  little  over   $25                 
  million/year.  There  was nothing  of any note  that can  be                 
  observed between or with respect to any of the various kinds                 
  of  taxes and fees that we do share with local communities.                  
  He continued  on to  fisheries and  said the  table (in  the                 
  handout) simply reflected the projections of catch value and                 
  consequent  tax  revenue  by  fisheries.     He  called  the                 
  committee's attention to what happened in calendar year 1995                 
  and what was thought  would happen in calendar year  1996 as                 
  payments were  made to  the State  in April  which was  when                 
  payments for the  principal fish taxes  were due.  He  noted                 
  further the breakdown in terms  of halibut, salmon, herring,                 
  shellfish and groundfish; what projected  value of the catch                 
  was during the last season and revenue believed will show up                 
  April 1 when the tax payments are due for fish.                              
                                                                               
  Senator  Parnell referred to the corporate  tax issue and on                 
  the first  spread sheet (general fund  unrestricted revenue)                 
  and noted the projected corporation  general income taxes at                 
  $5.1.   He  asked if  the numbers  reflected the  governor's                 
  initiative  as announced in  the State of  the State address                 
  regarding the education tax credits.  Was this a  reflection                 
  of the lost revenue in his projections?  Commissioner Condon                 
  said they did not.  Senator Parnell asked what the projected                 
  lost revenue would be at this  point and Commissioner Condon                 
  said he did not know.                                                        
                                                                               
                                                                               
  Senator Pearce asked  the Commissioner if  he could give  an                 
  overview of exactly what information about the corporate tax                 
  liabilities was available under  Alaska Statutes even though                 
  much is held  confidential.  It  was very difficult for  the                 
  legislature  and the  people of  Alaska to make  an informed                 
  decision about any  sort of a tax credit bill  that might be                 
  before the legislature when it was  known who the tax payers                 
  were and what  they were paying.   She also  wanted to  know                 
  whether  any of the  international air carriers  were on the                 
  list and if $1 million was being  given to them just to land                 
  in Anchorage, which is a worthy goal.  It was still a lot of                 
  money to be given up.                                                        
                                                                               
  Ms.  Vogt   said  the  confidentiality   statutes  permitted                 
  providing  the legislature  any  information  that  did  not                 
  disclose the particulars of any specific taxpayer.  She said                 
  there was a deficit in the information made available to the                 
  legislative  body and they  were trying to  best address it.                 
  Senator Pearce said  she did  not know if  the Governor  was                 
  going to address the particular incentives mentioned Tuesday                 
  night again in the State of the Budget address but certainly                 
  not much of a discussion could be had until more information                 
  was available.                                                               
                                                                               
  Commissioner Condon said the assignment had been  approached                 
  by trying to collect some fairly extensive information about                 
  the  various  sectors of  the  economy that  legislators had                 
  expressed  an interest in and  staff members had been spoken                 
  to about  information they  would like  to see  that is  not                 
  available.   Staff was  asked to  collect information  about                 
  other things and not just the tax returns as they went about                 
  it.  The priorities of their assignments could be changed if                 
  members of the Finance Committees and the Legislature wanted                 
  specific  information  developed, information  from  the tax                 
  returns in particular.  That could be done quickly.  Senator                 
  Pearce said it was hard to know what to ask for when one did                 
  not  know  what was  there.    The legislature  was  kind of                 
  shooting in the dark.  One needs to know the question to ask                 
  to get the information needed.  It is a difficult process.                   
                                                                               
  Senator  Pearce   asked  if   international  airlines   paid                 
  corporate  income  taxes  or  not.     Ms.  Vogt  said  some                 
  international   airlines   paid   corporate  income   taxes.                 
  Commissioner Condon  also pointed  out tour  ships and  tour                 
  ship  companies.  Ms. Vogt addressed this issue referring to                 
  a  piece of litigation before  the Alaska Supreme Court that                 
  was  going to be  argued next month.   She referred  to "OSG                 
  bulk ships" and it addressed a number of issues, the central                 
  one  being  from  a  tax  policy  perspective  on  whether a                 
  particular  provision  of  the  United  States Tax  Code  is                 
  incorporated into the State tax code.  Section 883 had to do                 
  with the fact that the United States does not tax the income                 
  of  foreign flag  ships.   The  United States  used separate                 
  accounting, taxing  income based  on source,  whereas almost                 
                                                                               
                                                                               
  all the states,  like Alaska used some sort of apportionment                 
  formula to tax income,  whether it be waters' edge  or world                 
  wide.   In  taxing by  apportionment, the  federal code  was                 
  incorporated  into  the  Alaska  Code  for  the  purpose  of                 
  defining   what  was   income  and   what  deductions   were                 
  appropriate.    One  of  the   federal  provisions  of  883,                 
  expressed the federal decision  not to tax foreign  ships in                 
  return for the  fact that  most foreign nations  do not  tax                 
  American ships when they are plying the waters of the world.                 
  The  problem   with  melding   the  two   systems,  separate                 
  accounting and  apportionment was  those rules  do not  fit.                 
  The argument in "OSG bulk ships" was  that section 883 was a                 
  sourcing rule and should not be incorporated into the  State                 
  Code like the rest of the sourcing rules that the Courts and                 
  the State have  found impliably not to  be incorporated into                 
  the State's code.  Section 883 became involved because those                 
  tankers  have  affiliates  throughout  the  world  that  are                 
  foreign ships and  the question was whether to  include that                 
  income.  The tax auditors have included all of the so called                 
  factors associated with that income into the denominators of                 
  the formula for apportioning.  If  the income is not put  in                 
  there  would  be  an  unbalanced  approach  as  to  what was                 
  Alaska's share.   The issue  gets more interesting  when you                 
  look  at the  foreign  bottoms that  are  doing business  in                 
  Alaska which are  the cruise  ships.  The  same argument  is                 
  made that because of section 883 the Feds have determined to                 
  leave that income out of the  Federal pot should Alaska also                 
  then leave it out.   It is an issue that  should have an eye                 
  kept  on.  She  did not know  how much  was involved because                 
  that information was not received from tax payers.                           
                                                                               
  Senator  Pearce   reviewed  tomorrow's   schedule  for   the                 
  committee beginning at 9:00 a.m.                                             
                                                                               
                                                                               
  ADJOURNMENT                                                                  
                                                                               
  The meeting was adjourned at approximately 10:25 a.m.                        
                                                                               
                                                                               

Document Name Date/Time Subjects